22JUN2024

Buy and Sell Advice(請睇清楚, 係「Buy and Sell」唔係叫你買)

• Entry Price: Around 1.0718 (near the short-term moving averages, probability of reaching this level is moderate)
• Stop Loss: Above 1.0797 (just over the 200-day moving average, probability of reaching this level is low)
• Target Price: 1.0650 (potential for further decline, probability of reaching this level is moderate to high)

 EURUSD, 即係歐羅兌美金, 未來呢個星期係沽為主。但彈上去1.0718 係60%, 因為係平均線所在地。

穿得1.0797 就一定要走, 因為係EMA 200。唔使留戀, 唔會守到返黎。

1.0650 只係一個好初步目標, 可以減倉, 食一半糊。

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想知背後分析, 响下面概率分析:

- 進場成功概率: 這基於市場條件的變化和技術指標。由於目前技術指標顯示出市場有下行趨勢，進場做空的成功概率可以估計在60%左右。然而，需要考慮到市場的波動性和即將發布的經濟數據對市場情緒的影響。
- 目標成功概率: 目標價位成功概率依賴於市場是否會繼續下行。如果市場能夠保持目前的下行趨勢，目標價位的成功概率可以在50-60%之間。
- 止損點概率: 止損點的設置通常是為了防止突發事件帶來的損失。由於止損點設置在阻力位上方，其被觸及的概率相對較低，可能在30-40%左右。

支撐/阻力分析:
- 進場價位的支撐/阻力理由:
  - 阻力位: 短期內多條移動平均線（如10, 20, 50）形成的區域（1.0750-1.0780）提供了阻力。這些移動平均線往往是強勁的技術阻力位，因為它們代表了不同時期的市場平均價格。
- 止損價位的支撐/阻力理由:
  - 阻力位: 止損設置在1.0800上方，這是因為1.0800是一個整數心理關口，同時也是近期多條移動平均線的上方，提供了較強的阻力。
- 目標價位的支撐/阻力理由:
  - 支撐位: 目標價位設置在1.0650附近，這是前期市場的低點，同時也是歷史上曾多次被測試的支撐區域。因此，1.0650附近是一個較強的技術支撐位。

COT報告趨勢啟示:
- 非商業倉位: 投機者目前持有較多的多頭倉位（187,697）相對於空頭倉位（144,053），但最新數據顯示空頭倉位增加（+22,966），這表明投機者對未來的市場走勢越來越看空。
- 商業倉位: 對沖者（通常是大機構）持有大量的空頭倉位（481,351），這意味著大機構對未來市場走勢持悲觀態度。
- 總持倉量: 總持倉量增加（+41,158），顯示出市場活動增加，意味著市場參與者預期未來波動加大。

綜合以上COT報告的數據，顯示出市場情緒趨向於看空，這與技術指標所顯示的下行趨勢一致。這進一步支持了做空EUR/USD的交易策略。

總結:
1. 進場策略: 在1.0750-1.0780區域進場做空，概率約60%。
2. 目標價位: 設置在1.0650，成功概率約50-60%。
3. 止損價位: 設置在1.0800上方，止損被觸及概率約30-40%。
4. 支撐/阻力理由: 基於多條移動平均線和歷史低點的技術分析。
5. COT趨勢啟示: 市場情緒趨向看空，支持下行趨勢預期。

請定期檢查最新的市場數據和技術指標，調整交易策略以適應市場變化。

 

 

To analyze the future trend of EUR/USD and develop a trading plan, we need to consider several aspects:

1. Technical Analysis:
#Chart Analysis (EUR/USD 4-hour Chart):
- Moving Averages: Multiple exponential moving averages (10, 20, 50, 100, 200) show the trend and potential support/resistance levels.
  - Short-term MAs (10, 20) are below longer-term MAs, suggesting a bearish trend.
- RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently at 38.56, indicating a potential oversold condition but not yet at the extreme.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Shows bearish momentum with the MACD line below the signal line and below zero.

2. Sentiment Analysis:
#Commitment of Traders (COT) Report:
- Non-Commercial Positions: Speculators (usually large traders) hold more long positions (187,697) than short positions (144,053), but the change from the previous week shows an increase in shorts (+22,966) and a decrease in longs (-1,260).
- Commercial Positions: Hedgers (usually institutions) have a significant number of short positions (481,351) compared to long positions (409,006), suggesting a bearish outlook from the commercial side.
- Open Interest: Total open interest increased by 41,158, indicating increased activity and interest in the EUR/USD market.

3. Market Volatility:
#VIX Chart:
- The VIX (Volatility Index) is relatively low at 13.05, suggesting low market volatility. However, recent upticks in the index indicate potential upcoming market turbulence.

4. Fundamental Analysis:
#Economic Calendar:
- Recent and upcoming economic data for the Eurozone and the US will impact EUR/USD:
  - Eurozone CPI data, German PPI, and ECB meetings are crucial.
  - US data such as CPI, PPI, Fed Interest Rate Decision, and speeches from key figures like Treasury Secretary Yellen will also influence the market.

Trading Plan:

Short-Term (Next Few Days):
- Bias: Bearish due to technical indicators and commercial positioning.
- Entry Point: Consider short positions near the resistance levels provided by moving averages (e.g., around 1.0750-1.0780).
- Target: Aim for support levels, possibly around 1.0650.
- Stop Loss: Place a stop loss above recent highs and moving averages, around 1.0800.

Medium-Term (Next Few Weeks):
- Bias: Continue to monitor for bearish continuation but be cautious of potential oversold conditions and corrective bounces.
- Fundamental Events: Watch for ECB and Fed announcements, especially related to interest rates and inflation.
- Adjustments: If economic data or central bank decisions are significantly bullish for the Euro or bearish for the USD, reconsider the bearish bias.

Risk Management:
- Keep position sizes small to manage risk, especially given the potential for increased volatility as indicated by the VIX.
- Adjust stop losses and take profit levels based on market reactions to upcoming economic data and central bank communications.

By combining technical, sentiment, and fundamental analyses, I have created a comprehensive trading plan for EUR/USD. Regularly update the plan based on new information and market developments.